What a hotter, drier UK means for your veg patch, and what to change first

A UK vegetable garden in 2070 will not be a hotter version of the one you have now. It will have a longer season, a sharper dry spell in midsummer, wetter winters and more days above 30°C. Some of that suits vegetables. Much of it does not.

What is already changing

The decade from 2016 to 2025 was 1.33°C warmer than 1961 to 1990, according to the Met Office’s State of the UK Climate report. 2025 was the warmest year in the UK series.

The growing season has moved too. Met Office analysis of the Central England Temperature record found that the average season in 2006 to 2015 was 29 days longer than in 1961 to 1990. Across the UK, air frosts were about 17% less frequent over the same decade.

That is not a projection. It is the baseline your soil, your watering and your sowing dates are already working from.

What the projections say

The Met Office’s UKCP18 projections, under the high-emissions RCP8.5 scenario, put UK summer temperatures 1.3 to 5.1°C above 1981 to 2000 by 2070. Summer rainfall ranges from 45% drier to 5% wetter, with the drying strongest in the south and east. Winter rainfall changes from 3% drier to 39% wetter. Hot spells of two or more days above 30°C rise from about one every five years to about four a year.

Change by 2070 (RCP8.5)	What it means in the garden
Summer 1.3 to 5.1°C warmer	More heat stress and faster evaporation
Summer rainfall 45% drier to 5% wetter	Longer dry spells, strongest in the south and east
Winter rainfall 3% drier to 39% wetter	Wetter winters and more runoff
Hot spells from about one every five years to four a year	More 30°C+ days, more bolting and flower drop

The figures are a range, not a forecast. A garden that already dries out in July will dry out harder and earlier, and the east will feel it first.

The east of England is the driest region, and the south and east warm the most in summer. A plot in Kent or Norfolk is running further ahead of one in Cumbria or west Wales. Coastal gardens get some protection from the sea; frost pockets and heavy clay still behave as they always did.

What it does to a vegetable bed

The soil dries faster. More heat and more wind pull water from the surface. The reserve below it is used up sooner, and the bed that was damp in June is dry in July.

Rain arrives differently. Winters are wetter, but more of the rain comes in heavy bursts. It runs off hard soil instead of soaking in, so the winter recharge matters more than the total.

Flowering and fruiting get harder. Tomatoes and peppers drop flowers when days pass 30°C. Lettuce, spinach and coriander bolt. Peas and beans set fewer pods in a hot, dry spell.

Pests and diseases shift. Warmer winters let more aphids and slugs survive. Wet winters and humid summers suit blight and mildew. Neither is new, but the pressure changes.

The season opens earlier and closes later. That is useful for overwintering crops and early salads, provided you can protect them from the frosts that still arrive.

The five changes that matter

1. Choose crops for the water you have. Root crops, chard, kale, perennial vegetables and herbs cope with dry spells far better than lettuce, celery or cauliflower. See drought-tolerant vegetables for the full list and the ones to avoid in midsummer.

2. Move the calendar, not just the crops. Sow hardy crops a week or two earlier where the soil is workable, and shift lettuce and spinach out of high summer into spring and autumn. The climate-change sowing calendar sets out what moves and what does not.

3. Mulch every bed. A 5 to 7.5 cm layer of compost or straw cuts evaporation and keeps the soil cooler. It is the cheapest water saving available, and it improves the soil as it rots. How to mulch a vegetable bed has the depths and materials.

4. Store water before you need it. A water butt on a shed roof will fill faster than most gardeners expect. Link two, raise them, and plan how you will get the water to the far end of the plot. Water butts and ollas does the arithmetic.

5. Plan for shade and heat. Shade cloth over salad, a greenhouse with vents and a damp floor, and containers moved out of midday sun. How to protect vegetables in a heatwave covers the practical steps.

What not to do

Do not sow a month earlier just because spring is warmer. A late frost still wipes out tender crops, and the soil may be too cold for the seed to germinate.

Do not water little and often. A daily sprinkle keeps roots near the surface, where they dry fastest. Soak the bed and then leave it. When to water vegetables explains the timing.

Do not put the thirstiest crops in the driest corner. Group lettuce, celery and courgettes near the tap or the water butts, and put roots and perennials at the far end.

Do not assume a hosepipe will be available. Bans have become a regular part of an English summer. Hosepipe bans and allotments covers what is allowed.

Start this winter

Test the soil and add organic matter while the ground is still workable. Clean and raise the water butts, and check the gutters that feed them. Decide which beds are the dry ones, and plan next year’s crops around that. Order seed for root crops, chard and bolt-resistant salad.

None of this is dramatic. It is the ordinary work of gardening, done with next summer’s weather in mind.

VegLog works out sowing dates from your own frost dates, which is the number that still matters most.